Modelagem multinivel de persistencia no ensino superior

Maria Eugenia Ferrao, Leandro S. Almeida

Resumo


As taxas de abandono ou evasao no ensino superior sao hoje preocupação social e das instituicoes, justificando a implementação de politicas públicas de prevencao do fenomeno. Estas politicas carecem de estudos sobre as variaveis mais determinantes do risco de abandono ou evasao. Nesta linha de preocupacoes, o objectivo central deste estudo e analisar o impacto da trajectoria escolar previa do estudante e das condicoes de ingresso no ensino superior, controlando a origem socioeconomica, a idade e o genero dos estudantes. Aplicamos o modelo de regressao logistica multinivel, considerando alunos agrupados por curso, aos dados dos estudantes ingressados pela primeira vez no 1º ano numa universidade pública portuguesa no ano lectivo 2015/16. Os resultados do modelo sugerem que a reprovação no ensino basico tem efeito de longo prazo, isto e, a probabilidade de persistencia durante o 1ºano e influenciada por esse atributo da trajectoria escolar do individuo, mesmo controlando pela respectiva classificação de ingresso na universidade. De acordo com as estimativas obtidas, os alunos que declaram nao ter reprovado no ensino basico tem razao de vantagens na persistencia 2,7 vezes maior do que os estudantes que autodeclaram ter reprovado no ensino basico. A admissao do aluno no curso de 1a opcao, bem como a classificação de ingresso na universidade tambem estao associadas à probabilidade de persistencia. Os resultados tambem mostram que os estudantes mais velhos e do sexo masculino tem menor probabilidade de persistencia.


Palavras-chave


Ensino Superior; Evasao; Persistencia; Regressao logistica multinivel

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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/s0104-40362018002601610

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